Chapter 3: Grim Prospects

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Is this about capturing Midway Atoll or annihilating the American mobile fleet?

Captain Iizawa was intensely concerned about the complicated and bizarre Operation MI, in which the top-priority objective is divided between the Navy General Staff and the Combined Fleet Headquarters. The goals are not unified, or even if they are, individuals interpret them differently. In such a situation, fighting can lead to unexpected pitfalls. That's why caution is crucial. In terms of battles between mobile units, it's about preemptive detection of the enemy. If you spot the enemy first, you can secure reaction time to deal with it.

So far, there are no signs of the American mobile fleet, but this is already the enemy's home ground. They must be very careful. While Iizawa was deep in thought, the flight officer reported that the reconnaissance planes had all been launched.

"All planes have been launched. Everything is according to plan for now."

The first reconnaissance unit consisted of six B5Ns from the Shōhō and one prototype D4Y dive bomber from the Shōkaku, totaling seven aircraft. These planes advanced in a fan-shaped formation from northeast to southeast to search for the enemy carriers. Additionally, following this, three B5Ns from the Shōhō, and a total of seven aircraft, including two E13A reconnaissance seaplanes from heavy cruisers Tone and Chikuma, will take off as the second reconnaissance group. While this is a typical two-stage reconnaissance, having only 14 aircraft, including seaplanes, seemed a bit tight for a mobile fleet with six carriers according to Iizawa.

While the Shōhō was launching her reconnaissance planes, the other five carriers had already dispatched Zeros, D3A dive bombers, and B5N torpedo bombers. The Akagi and Kaga of the 1st Carrier Division each launched six Zeros and 18 D3As. The 2nd Carrier Division's Sōryū and Hiryū each launched six Zeros and 18 B5Ns. Iizawa was told that a total of 120 planes, including six Zeros and 18 B5Ns from the Shōkaku, would attack the Midway base as the first wave, and that they were mainly responsible for destroying the enemy's air power.

"Flight officer, what do you think about the enemy's strength?"

Feeling a bit relieved after launching the first reconnaissance group as planned without the anticipated trouble, Iizawa casually asked the flight officer.

"According to information from acquaintances in the 1st and 2nd Carrier Divisions, it is certain that three Yorktown-class and the Lexington will appear as our enemies. In the worst case, the currently unknown Wasp might join. I also share this view. If there are four American carriers, we have the advantage with six carriers. However, if they have five, it might be an even match or slightly disadvantageous for us. After all, Midway has an airfield that can be called an unsinkable carrier, and the number of planes on enemy carriers should be greater than ours. I don't know the skill of the American carrier-based pilots, but in the Battle of New Guinea (Action off Bougainville), a unit of Type 1 land attack bombers (G4Ms), with higher resistance than the torpedo bombers, couldn't inflict any damage on the American carriers and suffered a devastating blow from enemy carrier-based fighters. From this, I believe that at least Wildcats pose a considerable threat, even if dive bombers and torpedo bombers like Dauntless and Devastator might not."

Since the continuous victories after the start of the war, there's a prevailing sentiment of underestimating the Americans within the Imperial Navy. Iizawa was relieved that the flight officer maintained a cautious attitude.

"Valid concerns, flight officer. That's why the 1st Air Fleet Headquarters reduced the number of fighters in the first wave from nine to six for each of the five regular carriers attacking Midway base. Conversely, the number of fighters in the combat air patrol for each carrier has been increased from three to six. It's impossible to eliminate the enemy's excellent escort fighters while dealing with attackers with only a scant squadron of fighters for each carrier. Well, even with these adjustments, preparing for an expected enemy mobile fleet with four or more carriers is still precarious."

"As you said, Captain, even with the increased combat air patrol, it still seems insufficient for fleet air defense. Even if we increase the number of combat air patrols, each of the five regular carriers has only six fighters left, and even if we factor in the Shōhō's 18 fighters, we still only have 48 planes. If the Americans launch an attack while the first and second attack groups are away, we won't be able to handle it."

The 1st Air Fleet has prepared 30 Zeros for escorting each of the first and second attack groups and an additional 48 Zeros for fleet air defense. It's evident that the numbers are inadequate, and Iizawa cannot help but agree with the flight officer's appeal. If the American mobile fleet attacks with four carriers, they should be able to deploy around 150 to 200 planes. If, in the worst-case scenario, the Wasp is also there, they must be prepared for up to 250 planes. Dealing with three to five times the enemy with Zeros, no matter how strong they are, is practically impossible. Moreover, a single bomb hitting the flight deck of an aircraft carrier could result in a significant loss of strength.

"It's going to be tough, but we have no choice but to trust our subordinates and see it through," Iizawa concluded, ending the gloomy conversation.

The flight officer and Captain Iizawa both acknowledged that they didn't have the luxury to continue casual conversation for an extended period. Since the operation has begun, there's a mountain of tasks to be accomplished.

<Notes>

1st Air Fleet

- Akagi (18 × A6Ms, 18 × D3As, 18 × B5Ns)

- Kaga (18 × A6Ms, 18 × D3As, 27 × B5Ns)

- Hiryū (18 × A6Ms, 18 × D3As, 18 × B5Ns)

- Sōryū (18 × A6Ms, 18 × D3As, 18 × B5Ns)

- Shōkaku (18 × A6Ms, 18 × D3As, 18 × B5Ns)

- Shōhō (18 × A6Ms, 9 × B5Ns)

   - In addition, some auxiliary planes and 21 A6Ms of the 6th Naval Air Group were dispersed and housed on a regular carrier.

- Battleships Kirishima, Haruna

- Heavy cruisers Tone, Chikuma

- Light cruiser Nagara

- Destroyers Isokaze, Urakaze, Hamakaze, Tanikaze, Hagikaze, Maikaze, Arashi, Nowaki, Akigumo, Yūgumo, Makigumo, Kazagumo


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